Where Fun Comes to Die

Prognostication is always a tricky game. But right now, it appears that Barack Obama is almost certain to be the next President of the U.S.A. Unless he marries Bill Ayers in a nationally-televised Muslim ceremony, it seems that he’s got a lock. McCain’s done a fine job of exciting a party that wasn’t predisposed to like him, but he’s turning off independents in the process and the Republican party is losing ground badly in voter registration.

McCain’s recent problems with independents and the tone of his campaign have got me thinking about Cass Sunstein’s work on group polarization. The basic theory is that groups of like-minded individuals tend to adopt more extreme positions than the individuals would independently . People in groups of conservatives will tend to become more conservative, people in groups of liberals will tend to become more liberal and so on. 

I’m not as up to speed on the literature as I probably should be, but it seems to me like one of the natural side effects of this phenomenon would be that as group opinion hardens, a group will tend to shed its more moderate members through self-selection or outright expulsion. As the group gets smaller and smaller its beliefs will become more and more intense, until all you’ve got left is a small, intensely devoted core. 

This theory would certainly seem to explain for some of John McCain’s recent problems with his own supporters. Who wants to associate themselves with yahoos like these?  The base, meanwhile, is busily casting out heretics when it ought to be making converts.

Although I certainly don’t want McCain to win the election (libertarians hated McCain before it was cool), it can’t be good to have one of the two major political parties melting down so completely. We are at a time when the size and power of the federal government is about to expand on a massive scale. It would be nice to have a credible, intellectually vibrant opposition standing athwart history yelling ‘stop’ (or at least ‘slow down a bit’), and unfortunately, we don’t have anything of the sort. 

So what can be done? McCain could probably heal a lot of the damage by stressing civility and good sportsmanship for the rest of the campaign and sending Palin off to a nunnery. But that would entail giving up any hope of victory. I think McCain would rather face a glorious blowout loss than a noble forfeit (which, to be fair, is an entirely human and understandable instinct).

The system does have some capacity to correct itself. A few years in the wilderness will probably help the Republicans regain some of their appeal. Absolute power will begin to corrupt the Democrats absolutely. More importantly, absolute powerlessness will give the GOP some time to think about what it’s done wrong. But in order to regain its lost ground, the Republican party must have the capacity for honest self-examination and self-criticism. It’s an open question if the party can learn those virtues even as it shrinks towards critical mass.

What we’re going to see, in short, is the Gingrich revolution in reverse and on steroids. There will be a big increase in spending and deficits. In normal times, moderates could have restrained the zeal on the left. In an economic crisis, not a chance. The over-reach is coming. The backlash is next.

David Brooks, “Big Government Ahead”, http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/14/opinion/14brooks.html?_r=1&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss&oref=slogin.

I’ve been saying this for a few weeks now, and it’s looking inevitable. God help us.

Rest in peace, old friend.

Hey, anyone know where a high-income, low-net worth, deductible-challenged individual can find a decent tax shelter?